Ethiopia – IFRC GO
15 September 2026
When the river rises without warning
For generations, communities along the Shebelle River in Kelafo, a district in Ethiopia’s Somali region, have faced floods and droughts with little advance notice. Information arrived late, communication between communities and authorities was fragmented, and responses came only after damage was done. In 2023, the worst flood in 60 years displaced 15,851 people and destroyed more than 7,700 hectares of farmland. During droughts, livestock losses were often catastrophic. Recovery could take years, only for the cycle to repeat itself
“Our community faced many problems before the early warning system was introduced. We had floods all the time. We did not get the information we needed before disaster struck. People were displaced, animals died, and farms were destroyed. Families lost their livelihoods.”
Building on what communities already know
Kelafo’s communities were never without knowledge. Elders and herders have long read signs of changing seasons by interpreting bird behaviour, the timing of flowering plants, and upstream river conditions. But as climate patterns become less predictable, these traditional methods alone are no longer enough.
Through Water at the Heart of Climate Action (WHCA), communities, local disaster management authorities, hydro-meteorological experts and the Ethiopian Red Cross Society are working together to bridge this gap, connecting scientific forecasts with local knowledge to enable early action. The result is Kelafo’s first-ever Community Early Action Plan, which helps communities prepare for floods, drought, and disease outbreaks such as malaria and cholera. The plan is owned and led by the community itself. When a warning comes, they act instead of waiting for external intervention.
From warning to action
Today, early warning information reaches Kelafo up to 15 days in advance. When a warning is issued, communities activate their plan immediately. Rasumal Golay Barqab plays a key role. Together with other early warning committee members, she collects local data on rainfall, water availability, livestock and crop conditions, and shares alerts and preparedness information with the community and Kelafo’s local authorities.
Warnings are disseminated through megaphones, community meetings, mosque announcements, mobile phones, and house-to-house visits by Ethiopian Red Cross Society volunteers. This early information allows people to act before hazard strikes, by moving livestock and household items to higher ground, reinforcing river banks with sandbags, and evacuating vulnerable people to safe locations.
For drought, early warnings arriving up to one month ahead give families time to store fodder, maintain water points, and move livestock before conditions worsen. When flood risks increase, actions to prevent disease outbreaks, such as mosquito net distribution and water treatment, are also triggered – cutting off malaria and cholera before they can take hold.
A recent example: the 2026 floods
During the 2026 March-May rainy season, communities in Kelafo received early warnings several days before floods arrived. This time, the response was timely and organised.
“Families living near the river moved their livestock and belongings to higher areas, and evacuated vulnerable people to safer places. The communities also built soil embankments, reinforced river outlets with sandbags, and evacuated water pumps. Because of these actions, fewer houses and animals were lost.”
A shift towards community leadership
The Kelafo Community Early Action Plan represents a boost of community disaster preparedness. With a clear plan and access to early warnings, communities can act every time a risk emerges, regardless of whether external support is immediately available.
This is the essence of WHCA’s approach: connecting forecast data to local action, and ensuring communities have the information and means to respond. Kelafo’s Community Early Action Plan is a living document, reviewed after each hazard event and updated annually with community input to reflect local realities.
“Before, people often reacted when the damage was already severe. Now, communities receive reliable information early and act before hazards strike. This has reduced panic, losses, and displacement. The improved early warnings give us time to protect our families, livestock, and livelihoods.”
When the next warning comes — and it will come — the communities of Kelafo will be ready.
